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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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